Friday, October 30, 2009

now happy?


According to a recent Merril Lynch (Bank of America) survey, Europe has officially returned to favor among investors. “A net 30% of global portfolio managers see euro-zone equities as undervalued relative to other regions, the highest reading since April 2001. A net 11% are overweight Europe, the first overweight allocation in nearly two years, said Baker.”
The numbers, meanwhile, reflect this perception. Over the last month, investors have poured a net (inflows minus outflows) $2.1 Billion into EU capital markets, an impressive sum when you consider that the figures for Japan and the US were both negative. Meanwhile, stock markets in the region are up by 50%+ since bottoming last March. When you account for currency fluctuations (i.e. Euro appreciation), stock market comparisons between the US and EU start to look pretty lopsided.
According to a WSJ report, there’s no mystery behind the European stock market rally: “Even though prices have risen sharply since March, valuations aren’t stretched. Average price-to-earnings ratios in Europe, on a trailing 12-month basis, are about 16, up from seven back in March, according to Citigroup…On a price-to-book ratio, stocks are trading about 15% below their long-term average, and dividend yields compared to government bond yields are historically still very attractive.”

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